Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Political Tuesdays: The Lost Senate Seats - When Will We Come to Our Census?

Well the 2010 Census is done. It cost over 11 Billion Dollars; or we saved $2.5B over the estimated cost because to the Superbowl ad was only $2.5 million instead of $5 million - you decide.

The Census is constitutional. That's right "founding fathers" worshipers, it is in Article 1, Section 2 (16th Amendment - regarding taxes). In 2000 the census was challenged under the 4th Amendment's right to privacy and the citizens lost. Despite the law, I still tried to resist, but my wife succumbed to the persistent door knockers inquiring as to why there are 3 Toyota Yaris' in the driveway.

The losses are stirring partisan feuds - like that is the only thing.

The most useful data appears to be determining how many Congressional seats a state gets. Here is the conflict. In states that are losing a representative in Congress, all but Louisiana are Democratic states (by the 2008 Presidential election map) including: Illinois, Iowa, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Losing an Election You Won, It's Possible this Year.

The real conflict is this, what if a Republican is elected to the Congress? In Illinios, it's a toss-up at the moment on 10th District between Dold and Seals. It leans Democratic in Lousianan's 2nd District. It looks like a Republican will take PA's 10th.

How does a state choose who is in and who is out? What if there is a Democratic bloodbath in November in the states losing a congress seat?

My home state of Masschusetts is one of thse losing a seat. It pretty tight in the 10th with Jeff Perry (R TEA Party - and before you get snarky, Scott Brown was a TEA Party favorite) running against Bill Keating (D).

Well, they usually cut the congress man or woman with the least tenure. This time around there may likely be a few freshman on the list. Oh, how to decide? The truth is that the state legislature in MA is saturated by Democrats. They get to decide who is cut. There is nothing new under the sun. It's just like the time they changed the senatorial appointment law to block Republican Mitt Romney from choosing an immediate replacement while waiting for a special election. Presidential hopeful John Kerry's senate seat, in the event he won; God save us, on the Kerry/Edwards ticket in 2004, would have been replaced by a Republican. Kerry didn't win, and it was a moot point. After the death of Ted Kennedy, the Democrat Deval Patrick could not choose an interim sentor for MA. So the state legislature changed it back. That my friends was a ply to slam healthcare through.

Politics is not Mr. Roger's neighborhood.

The word is out the Jeff Perry (R - 10th), even if he is elected is out. It is looking like Chalie Baker (R - Gov) may win out, but he won't have anymore clout than Mitt Romney did to turn the declining USS Liberal MA around.

If you'd like to do your own analysis on the "Lost Senate Seats", HERE Is an Excel Spreadsheet.

What do you think,who should decide who stays and who goes? I think it should be the voters.

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